Spin or pace Caution or aggression The keys to winning T20 World Cup

One of Australia or New Zealand will become men’s Twenty20 World Cup champions for the first time by winning the final in Dubai in the early hours of Monday (AEDT). Here are the key questions ahead of the match:

How will the teams line up?

New Zealand lost Devon Conway to a needless hand injury when he punched his bat in frustration at his dismissal in the semi-final, a major loss from their batting given they have been working off a six-batter, five-bowler template across the tournament. Tim Seifert is the most likely inclusion in Conway’s place. Australia, trounced by England when they played five bowlers, are most likely to stick to the same combination that has kept them unbeaten since. That means Mitch Marsh at No.3, four specialist bowlers, and Matthew Wade and Marcus Stoinis kept in reserve in the middle order to hit out against pace bowling at the death.

Aaron Finch’s Australia and Kane Williamson’s New Zealand will meet in the final.Credit:Getty Images

Is it win the toss, win the game?

Every single night match played at Dubai in this World Cup has been won by the team chasing a target. But that does not mean it is impossible to win batting first. Rather, whoever takes first strike will have to avoid the natural inclination to be conservative with the bat, under the reasoning that defending a target is a sound advantage in a final. Instead, the team batting first must ensure an aggressive, fearless approach to ensure the biggest total possible is secured â€" think Alyssa Healy in the 2020 women’s Twenty20 final at the MCG as an example.

As Australia’s captain Aaron Finch put it in terms of how the team rebounded from a bat-first loss to England: “What we did talk about during that time was staying really committed to being aggressive. We felt as though in that game we were probably just a little bit timid and got outplayed in the power play by [Chris] Woakes in particular, who got England off to a good start. It was just about staying really aggressive. We understand in this format of the game that when you’re up against a great opposition that they don’t always allow you big opportunities to get into the game, and whether it’s bat or ball, you have to really find a small edge at some point and try and drive that advantage home.”

Finch and England’s Jonny Bairstow chat after Australia’s loss to England earlier in the tournament.Credit:Getty Images

Do New Zealand have a mental hurdle in big games against Australia?

Given how well New Zealand have performed in recent international finals, whether beating India in the Test championship decider in Southampton, all but defeating England in the ODI World Cup final in 2019 or overcoming England again in the T20 World Cup semi, their record against Australia in such games is poor.

They lost a World Cup quarter-final in 1996, a Cup Super Six game in 2003, A Super 8 game in 2007, and famously the tournament final in 2015 at the MCG. In Kane Williamson, however, New Zealand have the ideal leader to be able to look past such things â€" and they did beat a weakened Australia in their most recent Twenty20 series earlier this year.

How important is spin versus pace?

In Adam Zampa, Australia have arguably the bowler of the tournament. His triumph has been one of skill, nerve and persistence â€" not only during this tournament but over his whole career in the face of doubts about his ability to spin the ball far enough to beat the bat, or be tall enough to generate bounce. On the contrary, Zampa’s skiddiness means he is always threatening to hit the stumps.

Adam Zampa in action in the semi-final against Pakistan.Credit:AP

While both sides have strong pace batteries, perhaps the most intriguing element of the battle on Monday morning will be how New Zealand’s own quality spin pair, Mitchell Santner’s slow left-armers and Ish Sodhi’s bouncing leg spinners, match up with Australia. David Warner is the only left-hander in the Australian top six, so an early exit for him would allow Santner and Sodhi to dictate terms by turning the ball away from the bat,

What will victory mean for either side?

For Australia, a first-ever men’s Twenty20 World Cup, and the first in any format since 2015, would start to vindicate the enormous investment over the past decade in the current generation of players. While they are a seasoned side, their collective achievements have been minimal, certainly in ICC events, and victory in Dubai would set the group up well for a home tournament next year and even the 2023 ODI World Cup in India.

As for New Zealand, a first World Cup win of any sort would be more or less the crowning achievement of nearly a decade spent reinventing the team. Under the leadership of Brendon McCullum and then his successor Williamson, the Black Caps have embodied playing the game in the right spirit, but doing so with high skill and exceptional nerve.

They already have the world Test match crown to show for it, but a white ball title would go still further to cementing their place as one of the world’s most admired sporting combinations.

Daniel Brettig is The Age's chief cricket writer and the author of several books on cricket.Connect via Twitter.

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